WEEKEND ECONOMIST: Restless Spain
The Reserve Bank board meets next week on July 5. It was clear from the tone of the minutes of the June board meeting and the governor’s speech last week that the board sees no immediate need to raise rates, despite holding a strong tightening bias. Therefore we see no reason to expect a hike on July 5.
In the governor’s speech, he clearly linked the next policy event to the June quarter inflation report which will print on July 27. We expect a print of the underlying measure of 0.7 per cent, not sufficient to justify a rate hike at the August meeting. We expect that a print of at least 0.9 per cent will be needed to justify a rate hike in August.
That will also be on the basis that there has been no major deterioration in global financial markets stemming from the European financial crisis.
For the last 10 days I have been travelling in the UK and Europe meeting real money managers, central banks and hedge funds.
Inevitably the discussion came to Europe.
I have to say that no one was optimistic for long-term stability.
It was generally agreed that the European way was to buy time in the hope that, in time, those troubled economies outside Greece would heal such that any eventual necessary restructuring in Greece would not be followed by immediate contagion.
Hence, everything that could be done to hold Greece together in global markets would be. Its total outstanding bonds are €340 billion of which 27 per cent are held by banks, and 43 per cent by real money managers, sovereign wealth funds and central banks. The ECB holds a further 16 per cent; the IMF the remaining 14 per cent. The German bank holdings are thought to be mainly limited to the German Landesbanks, which are not considered to be critical to the German economy. So, in the extreme, an orderly wind down of this sector is possible.
The possibility of the European community guaranteeing the entire volume of outstanding Greek bonds was supported by some arguing that a contagion would be far more expensive for Europe and the global financial system. However, the funding of future deficits – around €30 billion per year – would still be an issue.
The risk is not financial support from the EU, but social unrest in Greece. That could be partially averted by turning a blind eye to the government’s inevitable slow progress in implementing the reforms.
Course In Spain Spanish - News
Fiske-Harrison, an Old Etonion and Oxford graduate, is following a line of non-Spanish artists to have been captivated by the "corrida de toros" that includes film-maker Orson Welles, critic Kenneth Tynan and, of course, Ernest Hemingway.
Of course, this approach would carry many risks. Would the social unrest in Greece ease, even if there is some genuine European leadership that can coordinate a soft touch? And if it becomes known to the Portuguese, Irish and Spanish that the EU is not
Fiske-Harrison, an Old Etonion and Oxford graduate, is following a line of non-Spanish artists to have been captivated by the “corrida de toros” that includes film-maker Orson Welles, critic Kenneth Tynan and, of course, Ernest Hemingway.
In my last column, I promised more of the recipes from our wine dinner club's Spanish meal. I was the hostess, so I made the main course. I had had Costilla de Cerdo Lacada a while back in a tapas bar in Washington, DC, and thought I'd
“Investment from Spain has been particularly impressive, considering the economic downturn,” says Giles Paxman, Ambassador to Spain. Of course, the 75000 contracts worth £6bn for the 2012 Olympics have been key in attracting recent Spanish investment.
Learn Spanish in Nerja, Spain 2011 - LISA! Language Travel
Spanish language course in Nerja, Spain 2011
Dear Readers,
Once again we are pleased to be able to offer great value language courses to Nerja in 2011. A 12 week Spanish language course with accommodation in a host family costs just £247. At the LISA! Language School in Nerja, Spain, you’ll become fluent in Spanish in just a few short weeks and be able to chat to locals in no time. This will help you to really get to know the local culture in a way that tourists generally never do.
The language classes are divided into groups according to ability, so everyone, from beginners to more advanced learners of all ages, is in the group that is right for them. On the first day your language level will be assessed and you will be assigned to a group. At the language school in Nerja you will have the chance to get to know bright, intelligent people from all over the world. Most of our customers travel to the language courses alone, allowing everyone to mingle and make interesting new friends from all corners of the globe.
Language courses for adults and students in Nerja, Spain, 2011
(Spanish language course with accommodation in a host family, 20 classes per week) 12 weeks: £ 2,961
Our language courses for adults and students start every Monday. Participants travel to the destination on Sunday. We would be more than happy to book a low-cost flight to Nerja for you.
To request a personalised quote, please contact Sanne van der Kuyp.
Tel: 01256 68 97 21 (+44 1256 68 97 21 from outside the UK), email: team@lisa-travel.co.
or just stick to the "Mexican" Spanish, it's a lot easier :-) of course you might get dirty looks in Spain lol
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